Bonus: Observations On The 10-Year Anniversary of Bitcoin
The SharesPost Token Index increased 2.5% from 55.23 to 56.62 during October 2018. This compares to 4%, 26%, and 20% declines in July, August, and September of 2018. By comparison, the popular cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, shed 4% and 14% respectively during October.
For the first time since its inception in July 2018, the SharesPost Token Index outperformed these two leading cryptocurrencies. The Index’s performance was the result of key index constituents increasing their market caps following product launches and new partnerships.
Despite the gains of the month, the Index is still in the red since inception, down a total of 43% since July 1. This 43% decline in the Index compares to roughly flat results in BTC and 56% decline in BTC and ETH over the same period. The lagging performance is attributable to weakness in all but two coins in the Index. Individual coins that comprise the Index have experienced losses ranging from 27% to 60% since July 1.
In October, there was relatively low overall volatility for the SharesPost Token Index. Below we will visit the performance of some select constituents of the Index, as well as general observations from the crypto market at large.
Top Three Performers
The top three performers the month of October were, in order, BAT, LRC, and ZRX. BAT enjoyed significant gains after the coin was listed on Coinbase on October 11. Another winner was ZRX, which was also listed on Coinbase Pro on the same day, October 11. LRC’s gains can be likely attributed to two factors: 1) Eight additional LRC coins were listed on LoopringDEX in October; 2) LRC decided to join #DeFi, a community of protocols and projects seeking to decentralize finance.
Bottom Three Performers
The three coins hit hardest in October were IOST, ZIL, and OMG. Zilliqa’s price was likely affected by news that the team is pushing back the launch date for the Project’s Mainnet. Despite the completion of a first plasma iteration “Tesuji Plasma” at the end of November, OMG coin has suffered from bad publicity attributed to “unfulfilled promises” and continuously missed deadlines. The losses of both OMG and IOST also correlate with the general losses in Ethereum over the month of October.
Market Commentary on Bitcoin’s 10 year anniversary
Bitcoin turned 10 years old on Oct 31, 2018. The most notable phenomenon we have seen recently is the dramatic decrease in BTC’s volatility. Since the inception of SharesPost’s Token Index, BTC has trended within a fairly narrow range. What’s even more interesting is that in October alone, trading in BTC occurred within deltas of +1%/-6%. After the mania at the end of 2017, crypto-critics said volatility was the single most limiting characteristic of cryptocurrencies. It reinforced their skepticism that cryptocurrency is nothing but a highly speculative investment. Because BTC is the market leader – and because the industry continues to mature – we expect volatility to decrease further.
Custody solutions contemplated by big financial institutions are another area we find very intriguing on the 10th anniversary of BTC. While still in the early days, and devoid of any real offerings yet, custody shows big promise. It is a potentially multi-trillion dollar play. We’re encouraged that Goldman Sachs is contemplating crypto custody solutions. We also view quite positively the crypto consortium announced by Nomura, JP Morgan, and Bank of New York Mellon. Clearly, Crypto is going to Wall Street, and these initiatives by traditional financial institutions are likely to be noteworthy in 2019 and beyond.
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